Express Entry CRS Score Projections (March - July 2025)
Assumptions:
8,000 ITAs issued per month
5,000 new candidates added to the pool monthly
| Month | Starting Pool (Above 500 CRS) | ITAs Issued | New Candidates Added | LMIA Impact (April 2025) | Ending Pool (Above 500 CRS) | Projected CRS Cut-Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 21,000 | 8,000 | 5,000 | None | 18,000 | 514-518 |
| April | 18,000 | 8,000 | 5,000 | 4,500 (25% lose 50 LMIA points) | 10,500 | 500-505 |
| May | 10,500 | 8,000 | 5,000 | None | 7,500 | 490-500 |
| June | 7,500 | 8,000 | 5,000 | None | 4,500 | 480-490 |
| July | 4,500 | 8,000 | 5,000 | None | 1,500 | 470-480 |
Important Notes:
This projection does not account for the 41,000 quota for Category-Based Draws.
This projection does not consider the 55,000 PNP allocations.
This projection does not consider how many people are eligible for CEC from 450 to 520 CRS range.
This projection does not reduce the number of candidates entering the pool each month above 500, which will decrease after the LMIA points reduction.
Conclusion: These 4 points will further reduce the size of the pool.
Explanation of Terms:
CRS: Comprehensive Ranking System (used to rank Express Entry candidates)
ITA: Invitation to Apply (to become a permanent resident)
LMIA: Labour Market Impact Assessment
PNP: Provincial Nominee Program
CEC: Canadian Experience Class
Key Implications (Understanding the Projections):
LMIA Impact is Key: The largest change is projected for April 2025 because of the change in LMIA rules affecting points awarded. This is expected to cause a dip in the pool size.
Projections Are Limited: The notes highlight the major limitations of this projection. The actual CRS scores could be significantly lower than predicted because of factors not included in the calculation. The model simplifies the system by assuming stable draw sizes and new entrants.
Category-Based Draws are Important: The existence of the large category-based draw allocation (41,000 spots) indicates IRCC's intent to target specific skills and profiles, which could dramatically affect the "general" pool CRS scores.
PNP Influence: The omission of PNP allocations is also significant, as PNP nominations add 600 points to a candidate's CRS score, essentially guaranteeing an ITA.
General Trend: The overall trend the image suggests is that CRS scores may decrease over time. However, this is not a guarantee and depends heavily on policy changes and candidate profiles.
This data should be considered a very rough estimate and not a definitive prediction of future Express Entry outcomes.
Based in North York, Sanjay Prasher is amongthe leading Canadian immigration consultant in Toronto Canada specializing in Express Entry and skilled worker pathways. With extensive knowledge of IRCC policies and procedures, Sanjay provides expert guidance to individuals and families seeking permanent residence in Canada.
Sanjay closely monitors Express Entry trends and draw results, including the projected impact of the April 2025 LMIA point changes. Understanding that these changes could significantly affect Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores and Express Entry pool dynamics, Sanjay offers personalized strategies to help clients maximize their chances of receiving an Invitation to Apply (ITA).
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